Certainty engine · demo

Will an EV work on this route, this year, at this cost?

Icebreaker corridor: Haldia → JUNGLEPUR. Physics-based range, full TCO breakdown, and an honest confidence score — not a static average.

Verdict

Not yet 2027

Mean range looks workable (236.4 km) but worst-case (193.4 km) is tight versus 200.0 km. Do not commit a firm YES until telemetry confirms duty-cycle energy use.

Confidence 28% · physics-model energy estimate; low confidence — physics model only; no telemetry on this route

Range

Mean vs worst-case

  • 200 kmRequired
  • 236.4 kmModelled usable
  • 193.4 kmWorst case
  • 18.2%Mean margin

Worst-case scenario: summer, full payload, AC on, 2 depot-charge cycles.

TCO

Diesel vs EV on this duty cycle

  • ₹49.65/kmDiesel baseline
  • ₹37.92/kmEV total
  • ₹42,00,000Capex delta
  • 26.3 moPayback

Sensitivity

  • optimistic — diesel ₹47.02/km, EV ₹36.37/km
  • base — diesel ₹49.65/km, EV ₹37.92/km
  • pessimistic — diesel ₹53.60/km, EV ₹40.23/km

Charging & grid

Depot dependency

  • Available 400 kW · required 500 kW
  • Grid upgrade needed (~8 months)

Evidence

  • route_model — seed_elevation_profile · 5 sampled points
  • vehicle_spec — Shortlist 55T e-Trailer CCS2 HGV
  • telemetry — none — physics model only (0 trips)

This demo uses a physics model only (no icebreaker telemetry yet), so confidence stays low by design. Read why route-specific proof matters in The EV logistics Catch-22, or talk to WattsUp.